Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services Evaluation of State Worker Profiling Models: Final Report

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to improve state worker profiling models by: 1) establishing an approach for evaluating the accuracy of worker profiling models, 2) applying this approach to current state models to determine how effective they are at predicting Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit exhaustion, and 3) identifying best practices in operating and maintaining worker profiling models. All 53 jurisdictions returned surveys while a smaller number of states (34) submitted claimant data. Basic assessments of model effectiveness were conducted for 28 of these states, and extended analyses were conducted for 9 of them. The extended analyses included updating the existing model with the data provided by the state, revising the model with transformed or derived data elements and the construction of an alternative model called a “Tobit” model. A full statistical treatment for the updated, revised, and Tobit models is presented.